Business cycle dating committe
The NBER defines a recession as the period of decline from peak to trough in the business cycle.
A recession begins when the economy has reached a peak in activity and begins a decline.
Some economists feel that until the economy expands to a normal level, it is not fully recovered from the recession and is still recovering.
Once the economy recovers to its historically normal state, they feel, any economic improvement beyond that point is the expansion phase.
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity.
It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income.
The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IP).
The Committee's use of these indicators in conjunction with the broad measures recognizes the issue of double-counting of sectors included in both those indicators and the broad measures.
When the economy begins to recover, the recession is over. An economic expansion is the other part of the business cycle, as defined by the NBER, which is the period of economic growth from the trough to the peak.On November 28, 2008, the NBER declared that a recession had started in December 2007.The main controversy involves the recovery, which the NBER does not identify.Gordon -- NBER Research Associate and Professor, Northwestern University James Poterba -- President of NBER and Professor, M. Watson -- NBER Research Associate and Professor, Princeton University Bulletin on Retirement and Disability Bulletin on Health including Archive of Lists of Affiliates' Work in Medical and Other Journals with Pre-Publication Restrictions Archives of Bulletin on Aging and Health Digest — Non-technical summaries of 4-8 working papers per month Reporter — News about the Bureau and its activities.
The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak.
CAMBRIDGE, April 25 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research reached the judgment today that the peak of U. During the summer, the month-to-month changes in these indicators were small. The index of industrial production peaked in September.